Fiorentina 0-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Torino travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 1.40 PPG, Torino 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Torino in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fiorentina, 1 for Torino and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Torino in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Torino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Torino 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.38 xG and Torino 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.977 / defence 1.151 | Torino attack 1.012 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.137. Data: 56 Fiorentina games / 56 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 38% | Draw 26% | Torino 36%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Torino 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 38% | Draw 26% | Torino 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Fiorentina 1.38 / Torino 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.977 / def 1.151 | Torino attack 1.012 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Torino xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Torino kick off?
Fiorentina vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
Fiorentina 0 - 1 Torino.
Where is Fiorentina vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Torino part of?
Fiorentina vs Torino is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 38% chance of winning, Torino a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Torino?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Torino 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Torino in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Torino (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 0.98x the league average against Torino's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.79
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.71
1.32
Torino xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.32 for Torino, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 25W 10D 21L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 19W 16D 21L from 56 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.52 PPG, Torino on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (17W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Torino have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.14 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Torino in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 10D 21L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Torino have gone 19W 16D 21L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Torino away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.00 PPG; Torino away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Torino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jan 2022, when Torino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
5
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Torino have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fiorentina 2-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Torino?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 46%, Torino 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fiorentina) and 36% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Torino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 57% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Fiorentina's recent games and 36% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Torino tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Torino in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Fiorentina 0-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.38 xG and Torino 1.32 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Torino attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 38% | Draw 26% | Torino 36%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Torino 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Torino's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.52 PPG, Torino 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.