Sampdoria 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sampdoria welcome AS Roma to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Monday 17 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.20 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for AS Roma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus AS Roma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 60% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.00 xG and AS Roma 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.764 / defence 1.177 | AS Roma attack 1.090 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.172. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Sampdoria games / 47 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 23% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 47%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 2.13. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 50% | AS Roma 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 23% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sampdoria 1.00 / AS Roma 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.764 / def 1.177 | AS Roma attack 1.090 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.50
AS Roma xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs AS Roma kick off?
Sampdoria vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Sampdoria vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs AS Roma part of?
Sampdoria vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 23% chance of winning, AS Roma a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sampdoria and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and AS Roma in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
23%
4.32
30%
3.32
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.51
1.50
AS Roma xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
19.42
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.50 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 10W 9D 28L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 24W 10D 13L from 47 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 11W 4D 9L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.51 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 9D 28L in their last 47 games (0.83 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.96 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AS Roma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, AS Roma have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when AS Roma 3-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 62%, AS Roma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sampdoria and 58% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sampdoria's games and 58% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sampdoria's matches and 58% of AS Roma's.
Do Sampdoria and AS Roma tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.00 xG and AS Roma 1.50 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 23% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 47%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 60%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.