Cremonese 0-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 24 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Cremonese against 0.30 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 60% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Sampdoria 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.18 xG and Sampdoria 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.695 / defence 1.456 | Sampdoria attack 0.809 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.173. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Cremonese games / 48 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 40%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Cremonese 1.18 / Sampdoria 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.695 / def 1.456 | Sampdoria attack 0.809 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sampdoria xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cremonese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Cremonese 0 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Cremonese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sampdoria part of?
Cremonese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 30% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cremonese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Sampdoria in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.69) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.81x) against Cremonese's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
30%
3.28
30%
3.38
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Sampdoria xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.38 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese's recent record stands at 20W 13D 15L from 48 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 29L across 48 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 7D 5L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 4W 4D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 13D 15L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 10W 9D 29L in their last 48 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sampdoria away?
Cremonese's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.74 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cremonese
3
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 61%, Sampdoria 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cremonese) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Cremonese's recent matches and 44% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cremonese's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Cremonese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Cremonese 0-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.18 xG and Sampdoria 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.69 / defence 1.46 against Sampdoria attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 30% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 40%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sampdoria 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.