Pisa 0-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Torino make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie A (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Torino have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Torino have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Torino arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Torino and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Pisa 2–2 Torino — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Torino — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Torino 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Torino 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.28 xG and Torino 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.721 / defence 1.161 | Torino attack 0.956 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.182. Pisa's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Torino's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 30 games and Torino's last 68.
Result probabilities: Pisa 36% | Draw 26% | Torino 38%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.77 | Draw 3.78 | Torino 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pisa 40% (last 10 home games) | Torino 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 36% | Draw 26% | Torino 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Pisa 1.28 / Torino 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.721 / def 1.161 | Torino attack 0.956 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Torino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Torino xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Torino FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Torino kick off?
Pisa vs Torino kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Torino?
Pisa 0 - 1 Torino.
Where is Pisa vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Torino part of?
Pisa vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 36% chance of winning, Torino a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pisa and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.72) and Torino's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.96x) against Pisa's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 30 games and Torino's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.78
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.59
1.31
Torino xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Pisa and 1.31 for Torino, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 24W 20D 24L from 68 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 29L across 68 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Pisa against 1.13 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 15W 8D 11L from their last 34 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 7W 11D 16L across their last 34 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
Pisa (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Pisa vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Torino in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 24W 20D 24L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Torino have gone 19W 20D 29L in their last 68 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Torino away?
Pisa's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.56 PPG; Torino away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Pisa and Torino, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
1
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Torino?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 0, Torino have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pisa and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Pisa 0-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 47%, Torino 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pisa) and 50% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 35% of games; Torino in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pisa's recent matches and 47% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pisa and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Pisa's recent matches and 74% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.28 xG and Torino 1.31 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.16 against Torino attack 0.96 / defence 1.41, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 36% | Draw 26% | Torino 38%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Torino 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.35 PPG, Torino 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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