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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face AS Roma.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to Inter versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

AS Roma (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Inter's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of AS Roma's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, Inter are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Inter winning.

The historical record gives Inter a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Inter — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

AS Roma — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 46% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 53% | AS Roma 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.81 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.553 / defence 0.883 | AS Roma attack 0.980 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.180. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Inter games / 68 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 21%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Inter 50% | AS Roma 50%.

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