Parma 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Napoli at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Parma's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Napoli have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Napoli have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Napoli — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Napoli and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2026, ended Parma 0–0 Napoli — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Napoli trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Napoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 45% | Napoli 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Parma surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Napoli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.85 xG and Napoli 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.733 / defence 1.179 | Napoli attack 1.082 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.171. Parma's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Parma's last 69 games and Napoli's last 69.
Result probabilities: Parma 21% | Draw 26% | Napoli 52%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.66 | Draw 3.81 | Napoli 1.91. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 40% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 21% | Draw 26% | Napoli 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Parma 0.85 / Napoli 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.733 / def 1.179 | Napoli attack 1.082 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Napoli (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Napoli xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Napoli FAQs
What time does Parma vs Napoli kick off?
Parma vs Napoli kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Napoli?
Parma 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Parma vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Napoli part of?
Parma vs Napoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 21% chance of winning, Napoli a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Parma and Napoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Parma vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 69 games and Napoli's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
21%
4.66
26%
3.81
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Parma xG
Total xG
2.35
1.50
Napoli xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
20.77
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 14.3 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Napoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Parma and 1.50 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 69 games, going 15W 26D 28L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.13 PPG from 69 outings (44W 15D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 8W 11D 15L across their last 34 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.91 points per game from their last 34 away games (19W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.54 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
Parma (Home) vs Napoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Parma vs Napoli Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Napoli in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 15W 26D 28L in their last 69 games (1.03 PPG), while Napoli have gone 44W 15D 10L in their last 69 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.03 PPG; Napoli away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Parma or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Napoli in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Parma's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
3
Draws
1
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Napoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Napoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 0, Napoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Napoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Parma 1-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 59%, Napoli 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Parma) and 41% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 47%; Parma have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Napoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Napoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Parma's recent matches and 41% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Napoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Parma's recent games and 41% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Napoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Parma's recent matches and 76% of Napoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 32, as Parma and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.85 xG and Napoli 1.50 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Napoli attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 21% | Draw 26% | Napoli 52%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Napoli 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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