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Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Bologna 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.11 xG and Bologna 1.83 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Bologna attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Bologna 52%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Parma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 56%, Bologna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Bologna's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.50 PPG, Bologna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights