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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Pisa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.33 xG and Pisa 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against Pisa attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 50% | Draw 29% | Pisa 21%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 44%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Pisa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 2.22 PPG, Pisa 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights