🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Napoli at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Pisa encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Napoli welcome Pisa to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Napoli — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Napoli's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

In-Play Data

Napoli trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

Pisa trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 42% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 44% | Pisa 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.33 xG and Pisa 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.091 / defence 0.811 | Pisa attack 0.851 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.110. Data: 41 Napoli games / 3 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Napoli 50% | Draw 29% | Pisa 21%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 4.76. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 60% | Pisa 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights