Napoli 3-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Napoli welcome Pisa to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Napoli's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Pisa trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 42% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 44% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.33 xG and Pisa 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.091 / defence 0.811 | Pisa attack 0.851 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.110. Data: 41 Napoli games / 3 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 50% | Draw 29% | Pisa 21%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 4.76. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 60% | Pisa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Monday 22 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 50% | Draw 29% | Pisa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Napoli 1.33 / Pisa 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.091 / def 0.811 | Pisa attack 0.851 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Napoli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Pisa xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Pisa kick off?
Napoli vs Pisa kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 September 2025 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Pisa?
Napoli 3 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Napoli vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Pisa part of?
Napoli vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 50% chance of winning, Pisa a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Napoli and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Pisa in?
Napoli (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.09x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.46
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.10
0.77
Pisa xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Napoli and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Napoli and 0.77 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Napoli's recent record stands at 27W 10D 4L from 41 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 10L across 41 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Napoli on 2.22 PPG, Pisa on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 15W 3D 2L from 20 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 5D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.54 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Pisa in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 27W 10D 4L in their last 41 games (2.22 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Pisa away?
Napoli's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.40 PPG; Pisa away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Napoli or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Pisa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Napoli and Pisa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Napoli
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Napoli have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Pisa 0-3 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Pisa?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 40%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Napoli) and 40% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Pisa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Napoli's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Napoli's recent games and 40% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Pisa tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Pisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.33 xG and Pisa 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against Pisa attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 50% | Draw 29% | Pisa 21%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 44%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 2.22 PPG, Pisa 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.