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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli and Inter finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.00 xG and Inter 1.36 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.00 / defence 0.79 against Inter attack 1.42 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 26% | Draw 31% | Inter 44%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 53%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Inter's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights