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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 36, as Napoli and Genoa drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.37 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.25 / defence 0.72 against Genoa attack 0.66 / defence 0.93, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 57% | Draw 30% | Genoa 14%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 51%, Genoa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights