Napoli 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Napoli welcome AS Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Napoli have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Napoli have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Roma stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AS Roma have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Napoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Napoli, 1 for AS Roma and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Napoli 2–2 AS Roma — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 50% versus AS Roma 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 54% | AS Roma 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.81 xG and AS Roma 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.075 / defence 0.919 | AS Roma attack 0.864 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.343. AS Roma's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Napoli's projected output up. Data: built from Napoli's last 50 games and AS Roma's last 50.
Result probabilities: Napoli 54% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 22%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.85 | Draw 4.11 | AS Roma 4.64. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Napoli's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Napoli 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 54% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Napoli 1.81 / AS Roma 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.075 / def 0.919 | AS Roma attack 0.864 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Napoli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AS Roma xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Napoli vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Napoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Napoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Napoli 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Napoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs AS Roma part of?
Napoli vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 54% chance of winning, AS Roma a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Napoli and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Napoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Napoli's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Napoli's last 50 games and AS Roma's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.11
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.87
1.07
AS Roma xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
28.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Napoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Napoli and 1.07 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Napoli have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 21W 16D 13L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 21W 13D 16L from 50 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Napoli on 1.58 PPG, AS Roma on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 25 home games (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 6W 9D 10L from their last 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.58 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Napoli (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Napoli
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Napoli vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Napoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 21W 16D 13L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 21W 13D 16L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or AS Roma away?
Napoli's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.60 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Napoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, AS Roma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Napoli's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 4D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Napoli
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Napoli vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Napoli have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Napoli 3-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and AS Roma?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 56%, AS Roma 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Napoli and 60% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli have failed to score in 28% of games; AS Roma in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Napoli vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Napoli and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Napoli's games and 68% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Napoli and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Napoli's matches and 60% of AS Roma's.
Do Napoli and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Napoli's recent matches and 60% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat AS Roma 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.81 xG and AS Roma 1.07 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Napoli fell 0.8 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against AS Roma attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 54% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 22%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, AS Roma 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 1.58 PPG, AS Roma 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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