Lecce 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecce face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lecce welcome Cremonese to Stadio Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecce — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Lecce have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Cremonese have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lecce at 0.70 PPG versus Cremonese's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lecce's 30% BTTS rate and Cremonese's 20% (from Lecce's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lecce, 2 for Cremonese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Lecce 0–2 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 37% versus Cremonese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 37% | Cremonese 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lecce surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Cremonese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.10 xG and Cremonese 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.707 / defence 1.054 | Cremonese attack 0.610 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.188. Lecce's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Cremonese's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lecce's projected output up. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Lecce's last 65 games and Cremonese's last 27.
Result probabilities: Lecce 43% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.31 | Draw 3.17 | Cremonese 3.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lecce's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecce 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 43% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Lecce 1.10 / Cremonese 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.707 / def 1.054 | Cremonese attack 0.610 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Lecce (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cremonese xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Cremonese kick off?
Lecce vs Cremonese kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Lecce 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Lecce vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Cremonese part of?
Lecce vs Cremonese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 43% chance of winning, Cremonese a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lecce and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Lecce vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.71) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 65 games and Cremonese's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Lecce xG
Total xG
1.86
0.76
Cremonese xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Lecce and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lecce and 0.76 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 14W 16D 35L from 65 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 21L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 7W 10D 16L from their last 33 home games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 8D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.31 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Lecce (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Lecce vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 16D 35L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 23D 21L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.94 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Aug 2021, when Cremonese won Cremonese 3-0 Lecce.
Lecce's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lecce
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cremonese?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 3, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lecce and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Lecce 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Cremonese?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 36%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 52% of games; Cremonese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Lecce's recent matches and 52% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Lecce's recent matches and 64% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Cremonese 2-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.10 xG and Cremonese 0.76 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.71 / defence 1.05 against Cremonese attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 43% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 25%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 37%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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