Fiorentina 0-4 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Wednesday 27 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Udinese have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Fiorentina, 1.60 for Udinese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fiorentina, 0 for Udinese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Fiorentina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus Udinese 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 64% | Udinese 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.83 xG and Udinese 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.153 / defence 0.904 | Udinese attack 0.903 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.255. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Fiorentina games / 33 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 55% | Draw 25% | Udinese 20%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 30% | Udinese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 55% | Draw 25% | Udinese 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Fiorentina 1.83 / Udinese 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.153 / def 0.904 | Udinese attack 0.903 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Udinese xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Udinese kick off?
Fiorentina vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 27 April 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Fiorentina 0 - 4 Udinese.
Where is Fiorentina vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Udinese part of?
Fiorentina vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 55% chance of winning, Udinese a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.15x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.90x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.01
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.86
1.02
Udinese xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
3%
31.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.02 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina come into this having played 33 games, going 17W 5D 11L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.21 PPG from 33 outings (9W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fiorentina's home form reads 11W 2D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.48 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 17W 5D 11L in their last 33 games (1.70 PPG), while Udinese have gone 9W 13D 11L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Udinese away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.19 PPG; Udinese away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Udinese have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 44%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Fiorentina and 56% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Udinese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 56% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fiorentina's matches and 56% of Udinese's.
Do Fiorentina and Udinese tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Fiorentina 0-4 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.83 xG and Udinese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Udinese outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.15 / defence 0.90 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.50, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 55% | Draw 25% | Udinese 20%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Udinese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 64%, Udinese 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.