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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Juventus.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Juventus 0-2 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 2.01 xG and Fiorentina 0.90 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventus fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Fiorentina outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.27 / defence 0.81 against Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 63% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 16%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 40%, Fiorentina 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights