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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.06 xG and Parma 0.85 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Parma outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Parma attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 36% | Parma 27%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 45%, Parma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Parma's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.88 PPG, Parma 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights