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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Hellas Verona welcome Parma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 0.80 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 0 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Parma trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 43% versus Parma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 45% | Parma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.06 xG and Parma 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / defence 1.114 | Parma attack 0.720 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.064. Data: 49 Hellas Verona games / 49 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 36% | Parma 27%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Parma 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hellas Verona 3 – 2 Parma • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Hellas Verona 50% / Draw 50% / Parma 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 36% / away 27% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 1.91 (30% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 40% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D • Parma (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D • Hellas Verona home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Parma away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Hellas Verona 0.50 PPG vs Parma 0.80 PPG) • xG vs form (Hellas Verona): Poisson projects 1.06 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Parma): Poisson xG of 0.85 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.2 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.91 (70% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 40% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 36% | Parma 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Hellas Verona 1.06 / Parma 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.863 / def 1.114 | Parma attack 0.720 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Parma xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Parma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Parma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Parma part of?
Hellas Verona vs Parma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 38% chance of winning, Parma a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hellas Verona and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Parma?
• Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hellas Verona 3 – 2 Parma • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Hellas Verona 50% / Draw 50% / Parma 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 36% / away 27% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 1.91 (30% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 40% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Hellas Verona and Parma in?
• Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D • Parma (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D • Hellas Verona home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Parma away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Hellas Verona 0.50 PPG vs Parma 0.80 PPG) • xG vs form (Hellas Verona): Poisson projects 1.06 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Parma): Poisson xG of 0.85 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.70 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.2 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.91 (70% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 40% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Hellas Verona vs Parma?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture