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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hellas Verona and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and Lecce 1.30 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.62 / defence 1.30 against Lecce attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 49%, Lecce 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Lecce's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.96 PPG, Lecce 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights