Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fiorentina arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) — Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fiorentina in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Fiorentina edge it 4 wins to 3, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Hellas Verona 2–1 Fiorentina — a Hellas Verona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 46% versus Fiorentina 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 53% | Fiorentina 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.14 xG and Fiorentina 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.740 / defence 1.317 | Fiorentina attack 1.093 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.185. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Fiorentina's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fiorentina's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 68 games and Fiorentina's last 68.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 25% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 51%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.93 | Draw 4.18 | Fiorentina 1.98. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 25% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.14 / Fiorentina 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.740 / def 1.317 | Fiorentina attack 1.093 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Fiorentina xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 25% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.74) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.09x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 68 games and Fiorentina's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
25%
3.93
24%
4.18
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.84
1.71
Fiorentina xG
3.93
25%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
5%
21.60
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.71 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 68 games, going 13W 16D 39L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.38 PPG from 68 outings (25W 19D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 5W 9D 19L across their last 33 home games, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 60%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 16D 39L in their last 68 games (0.81 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 19D 24L in their last 68 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.73 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 46%, Fiorentina 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Hellas Verona and 64% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 48% of games; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 58% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hellas Verona's matches and 64% of Fiorentina's.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 64% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.14 xG and Fiorentina 1.71 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 25% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 51%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 53%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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