🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.14 xG and Fiorentina 1.71 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 25% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 51%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 53%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fiorentina's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights