🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Fiorentina 2.25 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.69 / defence 1.62 against Fiorentina attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights