Hellas Verona 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Fiorentina have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Fiorentina hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Fiorentina winning.
It is worth noting that Fiorentina have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 52% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Fiorentina 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.695 / defence 1.616 | Fiorentina attack 1.130 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.230. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Hellas Verona games / 63 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 9.09 | Draw 4.55 | Fiorentina 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 40% | Fiorentina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Hellas Verona 0.83 / Fiorentina 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.695 / def 1.616 | Fiorentina attack 1.130 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Fiorentina xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 11% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 68% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Record (7 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 4W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.69) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.13x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.62x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
11%
9.29
22%
4.64
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.08
2.25
Fiorentina xG
9.29
11%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
11%
9.46
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
1%
87.91
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 2.25 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 13D 34L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.62 PPG from 63 outings (29W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 9W 7D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.62 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 16W 13D 34L in their last 63 games (0.97 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 29W 15D 19L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.10 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 55%, Fiorentina 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hellas Verona) and 42% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 32% of games; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 48% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 42% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Fiorentina 2.25 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.69 / defence 1.62 against Fiorentina attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.