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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hellas Verona cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atalanta.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Atalanta 3-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.05 xG and Atalanta 1.32 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 41%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 47%, Atalanta 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Atalanta's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights