🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Atalanta (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Atalanta.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atalanta's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atalanta are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Atalanta have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Hellas Verona's 1 victories.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with Atalanta winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atalanta have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Atalanta in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 47% | Atalanta 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.05 xG and Atalanta 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.858 / defence 1.158 | Atalanta attack 0.996 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.141. Data: 51 Hellas Verona games / 51 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 41%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Atalanta 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 60% | Atalanta 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights