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Udinese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.79 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 50% | Draw 23% | Udinese 27%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Udinese 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Udinese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genoa 1.13 PPG, Udinese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights