Inter 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to Inter versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Inter's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of AS Roma's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Inter have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AS Roma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Inter 2W, AS Roma 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 47% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 60% | AS Roma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.55 xG and AS Roma 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.499 / defence 0.961 | AS Roma attack 1.122 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.168. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Inter games / 47 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 65% | Draw 19% | AS Roma 16%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | AS Roma 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Inter (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 65% | Draw 19% | AS Roma 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 67% | xG Inter 2.55 / AS Roma 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.499 / def 0.961 | AS Roma attack 1.122 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Inter (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AS Roma xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs AS Roma kick off?
Inter vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Inter 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Inter vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs AS Roma part of?
Inter vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 65% chance of winning, AS Roma a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Inter and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Inter 2W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Inter and AS Roma in?
Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inter's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.55. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.12x) against Inter's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.31
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Inter xG
Total xG
3.81
1.26
AS Roma xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
8%
12.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
1%
77.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Inter and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Inter and 1.26 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Inter have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 30W 4D 13L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 22W 11D 14L from 47 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Inter against 1.64 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.13 PPG from 23 outings (16W 1D 6L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 8W 7D 8L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.49 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 30W 4D 13L in their last 47 games (2.00 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 22W 11D 14L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or AS Roma away?
Inter's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.13 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Inter or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 5-2 on 5 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Inter
1
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 7, AS Roma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inter and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when AS Roma 2-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and AS Roma?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 44%, AS Roma 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Inter) and 52% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Inter's games and 70% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Inter's recent games and 52% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and AS Roma tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.55 xG and AS Roma 1.26 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.50 / defence 0.96 against AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 65% | Draw 19% | AS Roma 16%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 60%, AS Roma 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Roma's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter 2.00 PPG, AS Roma 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.