Genoa 0-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Genoa welcome Napoli to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Napoli haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Napoli have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Genoa's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Napoli have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Genoa.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Napoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Napoli have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Napoli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Napoli 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 53% | Napoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.16 xG and Napoli 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.008 / defence 1.060 | Napoli attack 1.041 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.180. Data: 38 Genoa games / 38 Napoli games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 27% | Napoli 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Napoli 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 60% | Napoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 27% | Napoli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Genoa 1.16 / Napoli 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.008 / def 1.060 | Napoli attack 1.041 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Napoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Napoli xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Napoli kick off?
Genoa vs Napoli kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa 0 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Genoa vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Napoli part of?
Genoa vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 33% chance of winning, Napoli a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Genoa and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
Record (8 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 3 | Napoli 5W.
What form are Genoa and Napoli in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.01) and Napoli's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.68
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.30
Napoli xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Genoa and 1.30 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. Genoa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Napoli, meanwhile, have gone 23W 7D 8L across 38 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. Napoli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Napoli's away record stands at 10W 3D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.53 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Pre-Season
Napoli
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Napoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Napoli have gone 23W 7D 8L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.16 PPG; Napoli away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Genoa or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Napoli in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Napoli runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Napoli have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 47%, Napoli 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Genoa) and 42% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 42%; Genoa have failed to score in 42% of games; Napoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Genoa's recent matches and 37% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Genoa's recent games and 42% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Napoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Napoli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.16 xG and Napoli 1.30 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Napoli attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 27% | Napoli 40%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 53%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.