Bologna 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Bologna welcome Lazio to Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 August 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lazio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Lazio have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.70 PPG, Lazio 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bologna's 30% rate and Lazio's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bologna, 4 for Lazio and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 45% versus Lazio 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 45% | Lazio 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.05 xG and Lazio 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.968 / defence 1.042 | Lazio attack 0.930 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.212. Data: 38 Bologna games / 38 Lazio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 32% | Draw 29% | Lazio 39%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Lazio 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 32% | Draw 29% | Lazio 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 1.05 / Lazio 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.968 / def 1.042 | Lazio attack 0.930 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Lazio (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lazio xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?
Bologna vs Lazio kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Bologna 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Bologna vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lazio part of?
Bologna vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 32% chance of winning, Lazio a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Lazio 4W.
What form are Bologna and Lazio in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bologna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.97x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.46
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.22
1.17
Lazio xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bologna and 1.17 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. Bologna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.42 PPG from 38 outings (14W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. Lazio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.47 PPG, Lazio on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.08 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 29%.
Defensively: Lazio in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Pre-Season
Lazio
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lazio in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Lazio have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.16 PPG; Lazio away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lazio in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
5
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Lazio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bologna 32% BTTS, Lazio 16%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Bologna and 16% for Lazio.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Lazio in 47%; Bologna have failed to score in 42% of games; Lazio in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Bologna's recent matches and 16% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 16% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Bologna 0-1 at Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.05 xG and Lazio 1.17 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Lazio attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 32% | Draw 29% | Lazio 39%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 45%, Lazio 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.47 PPG, Lazio 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.