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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Genoa 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Genoa 2-3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.11 xG and Napoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Napoli outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Napoli attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 29% | Napoli 38%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Napoli's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights