Genoa vs Lazio – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Lazio meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Lazio have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lazio are 0.90 PPG clear of Genoa in recent Serie A fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lazio, who have claimed 8 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lazio have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lazio — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus Lazio 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 50% | Lazio 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.87 xG and Lazio 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.914 / defence 1.105 | Lazio attack 0.910 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Genoa games / 40 Lazio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 26% | Draw 29% | Lazio 45%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Lazio 2.22. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 26% | Draw 29% | Lazio 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Genoa 0.87 / Lazio 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.914 / def 1.105 | Lazio attack 0.910 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Lazio (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lazio xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lazio kick off?
Genoa vs Lazio is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lazio part of?
Genoa vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 26% chance of winning, Lazio a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Genoa and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
Record (9 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 8W.
What form are Genoa and Lazio in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.91x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (0.91x) against Genoa's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
26%
3.84
29%
3.43
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.11
1.24
Lazio xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Genoa and 1.24 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 10W 11D 19L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio's form line: 16W 12D 12L from 40 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 28%.
Defensively: Lazio in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lazio in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Lazio have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.10 PPG; Lazio away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Genoa or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lazio in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
8
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Lazio have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 45% (Genoa) and 15% (Lazio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 55% for Genoa and 15% for Lazio.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 50%; Genoa have failed to score in 45% of games; Lazio in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Genoa's recent matches and 15% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Genoa's recent games and 15% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lazio tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lazio in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.