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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genoa and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 11, as Genoa and Fiorentina drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.74 xG and Fiorentina 1.00 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.60 / defence 1.18 against Fiorentina attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 25% | Draw 37% | Fiorentina 39%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights