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Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.90 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.64 / defence 1.07 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 30% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cremonese's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights