🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Genoa take on Cremonese.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Genoa welcome Cremonese to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cremonese's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Genoa's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

In-Play Data

Genoa trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Cremonese trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Cremonese 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Cremonese 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.90 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.642 / defence 1.067 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.067. Genoa's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Genoa games / 8 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Cremonese 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 40% | Cremonese 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights