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Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.18 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.13 / defence 1.08 against AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 39%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

AS Roma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights