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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Pisa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.93 xG and Pisa 1.31 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Pisa attack 0.94 / defence 1.46, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 52% | Draw 22% | Pisa 26%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 62%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Pisa's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.37 PPG, Pisa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights