Fiorentina 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fiorentina face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fiorentina welcome Parma to Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fiorentina stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fiorentina's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fiorentina) versus 1.50 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Fiorentina, 1 for Parma and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Fiorentina 0–1 Parma — a Parma win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 60% versus Parma 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 62% | Parma 46%). Note also that Parma surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.10 xG and Parma 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.995 / defence 1.056 | Parma attack 0.815 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.190. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 65 games and Parma's last 65.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 37% | Draw 30% | Parma 33%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.70 | Draw 3.36 | Parma 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 70% (last 10 home games) | Parma 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 37% | Draw 30% | Parma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Fiorentina 1.10 / Parma 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.995 / def 1.056 | Parma attack 0.815 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Parma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Parma FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Parma kick off?
Fiorentina vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Parma?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Fiorentina vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Parma part of?
Fiorentina vs Parma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 37% chance of winning, Parma a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fiorentina and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Fiorentina vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.99) and Parma's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 65 games and Parma's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.36
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.12
1.02
Parma xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.02 for Parma, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 17D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.06 PPG from 65 outings (15W 24D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.37 PPG, Parma on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 8D 9L across their last 32 home games, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 32 away games (7W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.98 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Parma
Blended
Fiorentina (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Fiorentina vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Parma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 24W 17D 24L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Parma have gone 15W 24D 26L in their last 65 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Parma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.66 PPG; Parma away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fiorentina
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Parma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Fiorentina 0-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 62%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fiorentina) and 47% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 31%; Parma in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Parma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fiorentina's games and 50% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fiorentina and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Fiorentina's recent games and 47% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 56% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 28, as Fiorentina and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.10 xG and Parma 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Parma attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 37% | Draw 30% | Parma 33%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 62%, Parma 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.37 PPG, Parma 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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