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Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.04 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Genoa attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.40 PPG, Genoa 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights