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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Empoli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.74 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 63% | Draw 23% | Empoli 14%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights