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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Empoli encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Fiorentina welcome Empoli to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Empoli 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Fiorentina trading profile (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Empoli trading profile (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Empoli 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.102 / defence 0.770 | Empoli attack 0.857 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.124. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fiorentina's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Fiorentina games / 71 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 63% | Draw 23% | Empoli 14%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Empoli 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 30% | Empoli 70%.

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