Fiorentina vs Cagliari – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Cagliari 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.21 xG and Cagliari 1.19 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Cagliari attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 60% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 19%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 53%, Cagliari 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights