Fiorentina vs Cagliari – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.36) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.97x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.78
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.40
1.19
Cagliari xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
2%
48.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.19 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.