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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fiorentina and AC Milan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina and AC Milan finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.13 xG and AC Milan 1.50 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.21 / defence 1.09 against AC Milan attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 29% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 46%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 61%, AC Milan 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

AC Milan's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights