Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face AC Milan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Fiorentina welcome AC Milan to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, AC Milan have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Milan away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Fiorentina, 5 for AC Milan and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with AC Milan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
AC Milan in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 57% versus AC Milan 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 61% | AC Milan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.13 xG and AC Milan 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.212 / defence 1.089 | AC Milan attack 1.167 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.183. Data: 57 Fiorentina games / 56 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 29% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 46%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | AC Milan 2.17. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Milan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | AC Milan 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 29% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Fiorentina 1.13 / AC Milan 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.212 / def 1.089 | AC Milan attack 1.167 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.50
AC Milan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AC Milan kick off?
Fiorentina vs AC Milan kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is Fiorentina vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AC Milan part of?
Fiorentina vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 29% chance of winning, AC Milan a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fiorentina and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AC Milan?
Record (9 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 1 | AC Milan 5W.
What form are Fiorentina and AC Milan in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. AC Milan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.21x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.90
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.64
1.50
AC Milan xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
15.72
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.50 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 14D 21L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan's form line: 29W 15D 12L from 56 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AC Milan are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
On the road, AC Milan have gone 14W 5D 8L from 27 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.61 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 29W 15D 12L in their last 56 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AC Milan away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.74 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AC Milan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fiorentina's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AC Milan have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 63%, AC Milan 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fiorentina and 63% for AC Milan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Milan in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Fiorentina's games and 59% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fiorentina's matches and 63% of AC Milan's.
Do Fiorentina and AC Milan tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and AC Milan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and AC Milan finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.13 xG and AC Milan 1.50 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.21 / defence 1.09 against AC Milan attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 29% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 46%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 61%, AC Milan 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.