Cremonese 0-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Fiorentina (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cremonese 0W, Fiorentina 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.81 xG and Fiorentina 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.735 / defence 1.329 | Fiorentina attack 1.004 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.113. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Cremonese games / 63 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 20% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 53%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Fiorentina 1.89. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 20% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Cremonese 0.81 / Fiorentina 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.735 / def 1.329 | Fiorentina attack 1.004 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Fiorentina xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cremonese vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Cremonese 0 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Cremonese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Fiorentina part of?
Cremonese vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 20% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cremonese and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Fiorentina?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Fiorentina in?
Cremonese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.73x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.00x) against Cremonese's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
20%
4.90
26%
3.79
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.29
1.48
Fiorentina xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.60
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.0 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.48 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 18D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.48 PPG from 63 outings (27W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Cremonese against 1.48 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 18D 24L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 27W 12D 24L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Fiorentina away?
Cremonese's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.45 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fiorentina have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Fiorentina have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 55%, Fiorentina 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 48% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 32% of games; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Cremonese's games and 58% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 48% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cremonese 0-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.81 xG and Fiorentina 1.48 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Fiorentina attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 20% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 53%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.29 PPG, Fiorentina 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.