Atalanta 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Atalanta welcome Udinese to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at Gewiss Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atalanta, 0 for Udinese and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 60% and Udinese 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 55% | Udinese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.83 xG and Udinese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.398 / defence 1.151 | Udinese attack 0.893 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.174. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Atalanta games / 62 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 23% | Udinese 25%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Udinese 4.00. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 23% | Udinese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Atalanta 1.83 / Udinese 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.398 / def 1.151 | Udinese attack 0.893 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Udinese xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Udinese kick off?
Atalanta vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Atalanta vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Udinese part of?
Atalanta vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 52% chance of winning, Udinese a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atalanta and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 2 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.40x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.37
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.04
1.21
Udinese xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.21 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 28W 16D 18L from 62 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 20L across 62 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.61 PPG, Udinese on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 9W 10D 11L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.52 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 28W 16D 18L in their last 62 games (1.61 PPG), while Udinese have gone 18W 24D 20L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Udinese away?
Atalanta's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.23 PPG; Udinese away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
6
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Udinese have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Udinese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 70%, Udinese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Atalanta) and 57% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Atalanta's games and 57% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Atalanta's matches and 57% of Udinese's.
Do Atalanta and Udinese tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Udinese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Udinese finished level at 0-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.83 xG and Udinese 1.21 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.40 / defence 1.15 against Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 52% | Draw 23% | Udinese 25%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 55%, Udinese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.61 PPG, Udinese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.