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Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Parma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.89 xG and Parma 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.66 / defence 1.19 against Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 30% | Draw 33% | Parma 36%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Parma 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Parma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights