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Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 31, as Empoli and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.80 xG and Cagliari 1.20 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 1.27 against Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 23% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 44%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 35%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cagliari's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.87 PPG, Cagliari 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights