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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Empoli 0-5 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.55 xG and Atalanta 1.80 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.80 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.64 / defence 1.12 against Atalanta attack 1.32 / defence 0.64, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 9% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Atalanta 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atalanta's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights