Empoli 0-5 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Empoli face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Atalanta have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Atalanta are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Atalanta have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Empoli's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with Atalanta winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atalanta have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Atalanta 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Atalanta 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.55 xG and Atalanta 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.643 / defence 1.121 | Atalanta attack 1.325 / defence 0.642. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.214. Empoli's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.642 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Empoli games / 63 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 9% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 11.11 | Draw 4.17 | Atalanta 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 40% | Atalanta 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 9% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 37% | xG Empoli 0.55 / Atalanta 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.643 / def 1.121 | Atalanta attack 1.325 / def 0.642 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Atalanta xG
37%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Atalanta kick off?
Empoli vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Atalanta?
Empoli 0 - 5 Atalanta.
Where is Empoli vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Atalanta part of?
Empoli vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 9% chance of winning, Atalanta a 66% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Empoli and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Atalanta?
Record (7 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 6W.
What form are Empoli and Atalanta in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.64x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.32x) against Empoli's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (15.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
9%
10.73
24%
4.10
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.4%
Away win
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.36
1.80
Atalanta xG
10.73
9%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
2%
65.04
38%
2.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 17.1 | 15.4 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Empoli and 1.80 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 63 games, going 13W 18D 32L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.90 PPG from 63 outings (36W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 6W 10D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.68 points per game from 31 outings (15W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 18D 32L in their last 63 games (0.90 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 36W 12D 15L in their last 63 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.90 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Empoli or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atalanta have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-5 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
0
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Atalanta?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Atalanta have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Empoli 0-5 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 29%, Atalanta 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Empoli) and 61% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atalanta in 36%; Empoli have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Empoli's recent games and 61% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Atalanta tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Empoli 0-5 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.55 xG and Atalanta 1.80 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.80 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.64 / defence 1.12 against Atalanta attack 1.32 / defence 0.64, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 9% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Atalanta 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.