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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Empoli 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 1.31 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 17% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 52%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, AS Roma 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AS Roma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights